Northern Ontario Housing & Mortgage Monthly

For clients in North Bay, Greater Sudbury, Muskoka, Sault Ste. Marie & Timmins — November 2025

What changed at the Bank of Canada — and why it matters here

• BoC cut the policy rate to 2.25% on Oct 29, 2025 (second straight cut). The statement suggested we may be near the end of this easing phase unless conditions change. Bank of Canada 
• The Bank flagged soft growth, trade uncertainty, and cooling inflation (headline ~2.4% in September) as reasons for support. Markets now expect a hold into early 2026 unless data deteriorates. Reuters

Bottom line for borrowers: Funding costs eased again. Further cuts are less certain—build plans assuming current rates hold through winter.

Northern Ontario Deep Dive (Latest Board Snapshots)

Greater Sudbury
September 2025: Dollar volume $146.8M (Sept record, +17.8% YoY); 436 new listings (largest September in 10+ yrs). CREA Stats

North Bay
September 2025: Average price $512,767 (+12.8% YoY). CREA Stats

Sault Ste. Marie
September 2025: HPI $315,100 (+4.6% YoY); average price $310,811 (-3.7% YoY). CREA Stats

Timmins – Cochrane, Timiskaming District
September 2025: Average price $289,796 (+10.8% YoY); sales above 5- & 10-yr Sept averages. CREA Stats

Muskoka / Lakelands (Regional Context)
Q3 2025: Non-waterfront sales up ~17.5% YoY; waterfront MOI 8.6; median DOM ~42 for waterfront. CREA Stats

Investor Corner — Regional Snapshot (To Use In Your Underwriting)

CMHC Primary Rental Market Survey (Fall 2024) remains the latest official survey for these centres. We apply prudent buffers below. www03.cmhc-schl.gc.ca

North Bay 

• Vacancy ~1.6%
• Avg rent ~$1,232, Median ~$1,144 (tight).
• Underwrite: 3–4% vacancy, 0–2% rent growth 12-mo; DSCR ≥1.20 on today’s rates.

Sault Ste. Marie 

• Vacancy ~2.4%
• Avg rent ~$1,214, Median ~$1,150.
• Underwrite: 4% vacancy base, 0–2% rent growth; sensitivity at 5% vacancy.

Greater Sudbury 

• Vacancy ~1.4%
• Avg rent ~$1,356, Median ~$1,307; strong 2024 rent gains now normalizing.
• Underwrite: 3% vacancy, 0–2% rent growth unless value-add is proven.

Timmins 

• Vacancy ~2.3%
• Avg rent ~$1,165, Median ~$1,200; small universe increases volatility.
• Underwrite: 4% vacancy, flat to +1% rents; keep exit cap +50–75 bps to entry.

Muskoka (District)

• Bracebridge: Vacancy 1.1%, Avg rent ~$1,347 (universe ~343).
• Huntsville & Gravenhurst: Avg rents ~$1,27k–1,37k; vacancy suppressed by CMHC (small samples).
• Market colour (Q3 2025): Waterfront MOI 8.6, median DOM ~42; non-waterfront DOM ~35.
• Underwrite: Use 4–5% vacancy (seasonality/small sample), slower lease-up for STR-adjacent product, higher carrying costs. www03.cmhc-schl.gc.ca

Financing / cap-rate colour (national lens): Multifamily cap rates stabilized into mid-2025 with some markets showing slight compression; price discovery remains asset-specific. Keep entry-to-exit cap spread +50–75 bps, DSCR ≥1.20–1.25, and Ops inflation assumptions of insurance +8–12% YoY, utilities +3–6% YoY unless you have current actuals. CREA Stats

What This Means For Your Plan (North Bay • Sudbury • Muskoka • The Sault • Timmins)

1. Renewals (Next 6–12 Months)
   Short 2–3 yr fixed can bridge to 2026 without betting on more cuts; variables look better after October’s move, but we’ll stress at +200 bps either way. Reuters
   
   
2. Buyers & Movers
   • Sudbury: Record September dollar volume with more new supply—negotiate on condition/repairs while selection is improving. CREA Stats
   • North Bay: Price momentum persists; have approvals/deposit ready for quick DOM segments. CREA Stats
   • Sault: HPI trend up even as averages wiggle—pricing right still moves product. CREA Stats
   • Timmins: Affordability + above-trend sales; don’t skip inspection as listings rise. CREA Stats
   • Muskoka: Waterfront is slower/balanced (MOI 8.6); non-waterfront steadier—budget higher taxes/insurance/utilities. CREA Stats
     
     
3. Investors
   • Target deals that clear DSCR ≥1.20 at today’s rates and still ≥1.10 under flat-rent, +200 bps stress. Keep exit cap conservative and model longer exit timelines for waterfront. CREA Stats
     
     
4. Existing Mortgages
   • Variable: consider small prepayments to realign amortization while we gauge winter policy path. Reuters
   • Fixed: “Blend-and-extend” only if total interest saved > penalty over your true holding period—we’ll run the math precisely.

Quick Dashboard

• Overnight rate: 2.25% (cut Oct 29).Bank of Canada
• Macro tone: Growth soft; trade uncertainty; inflation easing near 2%. Reuters
• Sudbury: September dollar-volume record; new listings highest in 10+ yrs. CREA Stats
• North Bay: Avg price $512,767 (+12.8% YoY). CREA Stats
• Sault: HPI $315,100 (+4.6% YoY); avg $310,811 (-3.7% YoY). CREA Stats
• Timmins: Avg price $289,796 (+10.8% YoY); sales above norms. CREA Stats
• Muskoka: Waterfront MOI 8.6, waterfront DOM ~42; non-waterfront DOM ~35 (Q3). CREA Stats
• Rental market (latest CMHC): Tight across centres; use conservative vacancy/rent assumptions. www03.cmhc-schl.gc.ca

How We’ll Help (Next Steps)

If you’d like, I can run a personalized renewal / purchase / investor plan that stress-tests payment, DSCR and exit under three paths:

1. Hold at 2.25%, 2) +0.25% cut scenario in early 2026 (low-probability), 3) No further cuts.

Just email This email address is being protected from spambots. You need JavaScript enabled to view it. with the subject line “Run My Numbers” and include your renewal date (or target purchase price & down payment).

Thanks for reading!

Caleb O'Connor, CFP
Partner | Financial Planner | Mortgage & Lending Lead, Innova Wealth Partners
Mortgage Agent Level 1, HQ Mortgages Inc.

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Agent Lic. #M25000210 | Brokerage Lic. #12174

This publication is for informational purposes only and shall not be construed to constitute any form of advice. The views expressed are those of the author alone. Opinions expressed are as of the date of this publication and are subject to change without notice and information has been compiled from sources believed to be reliable. This publication has been prepared for general circulation and without regard to the individual financial circumstances and objectives of persons who receive it. You should not act or rely on the information without seeking the advice of the appropriate professional.