Northern Ontario Housing & Mortgage Monthly

For clients in North Bay, Greater Sudbury, Muskoka, Sault Ste. Marie & Timmins — October 2025

What changed at the Bank of Canada — and why it matters here

• BoC cut the policy rate to 2.50% on Sept 17. The next announcement (with the October MPR) is Oct 29. The BoC’s latest deliberations flagged trade-related uncertainty and left the door open to further easing if risks rise. Bank of Canada
• Markets now lean to another 25 bps cut by late October, reflecting weak manufacturing data (PMI 47.7 in Sept). The Globe and Mail

Bottom line for borrowers: We’re now closer to the “neutral” zone. A second fall cut is plausible; path beyond that depends on growth/inflation and trade frictions.

Northern Ontario Deep Dive

Greater Sudbury

• Sales (Aug 2025): dollar volume $124.1M (+17% YoY, August record); 335 new listings (+3.4% YoY). CREA Stats
  Read: Solid activity with improving selection.

Muskoka (via OnePoint Association — Lakelands North)

Q2 2025 (Muskoka & area):

• Non-waterfront median: $679,448 (+0.7% YoY), sales -15.6% YoY.
• Waterfront median: $947,500 (-6.7% YoY), sales -9.6% YoY; waterfront DOM ~22 days. CREA Stats
• Read: Waterfront adjusted most; carrying costs (tax/ins/ utilities) remain a key filter.

Sault Ste. Marie

• Latest board snapshot (Q2/May 2025): HPI $313,300 (+2.8% YoY); average price $329,428 (-4.7% YoY). CREA Stats
• Read: Balanced with quick DOM when priced right.

Timmins – Cochrane, Timiskaming District (TCTDAR)

• Average price (Aug 2025): $289,452 (-1.3% YoY).
• New listings: 199 (+11.8% YoY). CREA Stats
• Read: More choice for buyers; pricing broadly steady YTD.

North Bay

• Average price (Aug 2025): $522,856 (+10.3% YoY).
• HPI composite/single-family: $431,000 (+2% YoY). CREA Stats
• Read: Momentum on prices; board data suggests balanced-to-brisk conditions.

Investor Corner - Income Property Snapshot (Rents, Vacancy, Cap-rate Context)

Vacancy & rents (CMHC Primary Rental Market, Fall 2024 survey):

North Bay

• Vacancy: 1.6%
• Avg rent: $1,232 • Median: $1,144 • Universe: ~3,650 units. CMHC
• Underwrite: Base 3%–4% vacancy, flat to +2% rent growth 12-mo; target DSCR ≥1.20 at today’s rates.

Sault Ste. Marie

• Vacancy: 2.4%
• Avg rent: $1,214 • Median: $1,150 • Universe: ~5,194 units. CMHC
• Underwrite: 4% vacancy base; modest rent growth (0–2%); sensitivity with 5% vacancy for turnover risk

Greater Sudbury

• Vacancy: 1.4% (tight)
• Avg rent: $1,356 • Median: $1,307 • YoY rent change: +11.4% • Universe: ~13,234 units. CMHC
• Underwrite: 3% vacancy, 0–2% rent growth (cooling from 2024 pace) unless value-add is verifiable.

Timmins

• Vacancy: 2.3%
• Avg rent: $1,165 • Median: $1,200 • Universe: ~1,800 units. CMHC
• Underwrite: 4% vacancy (small universe/volatility), flat rents in base case; keep exit cap +50–75 bps to entry.

Muskoka (District)

• Bracebridge: Vacancy 1.1%, Avg rent $1,347, Universe 343. CMHC
• Huntsville: Vacancy suppressed (CMHC), Avg rent $1,372, Universe 445. CMHC
• Gravenhurst: Vacancy suppressed, Avg rent $1,272, Universe 383. CMHC
  District context: Bracebridge vacancy confirmed 1.1% (2024); other towns historically tight; AMR up ~20% over five years. Muskoka
  Underwrite: Use 4–5% vacancy (seasonality/small samples), higher carrying costs (tax/ins/utilities), slower lease-up for STR-adjacent product.

Canada (urban centres): vacancy rose to 2.2% (from 1.5%), rent growth cooled versus 2023. Canada Mortgage and Housing Corporation

Cap-rate & transaction colour (national lens):

• Altus Group’s Q2-2025 work notes multi-residential (apartment) pricing has broadly stabilized with slight outward cap-rate pressure earlier in the year; performance varies by market/asset quality. Treat Northern Ontario underwriting as conservative cap-rates with flat-to-mid single-digit rent growth in pro formas. Altus Group
• Morguard Q2-2025: Cap rates largely stabilized; multi-suite rental demand outpacing supply despite muted sales volumes. Morguard

What to do with this (quick rules of thumb):

1. Finance: With the policy rate now 2.50%, model debt costs at today’s rate and one more 25 bps cut — but keep exit cap 50–75 bps wider than entry to stay conservative. Bank of Canada
2. Rents: Underwrite flat to +2% for 12 months unless you’re doing verifiable value-add. CMHC shows cooling rent growth as supply delivers. Canada Mortgage and Housing Corporation
3. Vacancy: Use 3%–4% in North Bay/Sault to be safe (above reported levels) and stress with 5% in sensitivity tables. CMHC
4. Insurance/Taxes/Utilities: Keep non-controllables trending up (insurance +8–12% YoY, power/water +3–6% YoY in scenarios). (Local carrier quotes vary; we’ll use your actuals where available.)
5. Waterfront / seasonal rentals: Assume slower lease-up and longer exit timelines through 2026 relative to in-town apartments. CREA Stats

What this means for your plan (North Bay • Sudbury • Muskoka • the Sault • Timmins)

1. Renewals in the next 6–18 months

• Shorter fixed (2–3 yr) can bridge into 2026 if cuts continue; variables improve as prime drifts down, but we’ll stress at +200 bps either way. The Globe and Mail

2. Buyers & movers

• Sudbury / Sault: Negotiate on condition/repairs over big price chops; supply improving. CREA Stats
• Muskoka: Waterfront softness = better selection; underwrite higher carrying costs. CREA Stats
• Timmins: More listings = more choice; don’t skip inspections. CREA Stats
• North Bay: Price momentum supports quick DOM; have approvals & deposits ready. CREA Stats

3. Investors

• With the policy rate at 2.50% and odds of another cut this fall, target deals that clear DSCR ≥1.20–1.25 on today’s rates and still ≥1.10 under a flat-rent case. Keep exit caps conservative. Bank of Canada

4. Existing mortgages

• Variable: a small prepayment may realign amortization while we wait on possible October easing. Bank of Canada
• Fixed: Consider blend-and-extend only if total interest-saved > penalty over your real holding period.

Quick dashboard

• Overnight rate: 2.50% (cut Sept 17). Next decision Oct 29. 
• Macro tone: PMI contraction keeps rate-cut bets alive. 
• Sudbury: August dollar volume record; listings +3.4% YoY. 
• North Bay: Avg price $522,856 (+10.3% YoY).
• Timmins: Avg price $289,452 (-1.3% YoY); listings +11.8% YoY. 
• Sault Ste. Marie: Balanced; HPI $313,300 (+2.8% YoY). 
• Muskoka: Waterfront medians lower YoY; DOM ~22d. 
• Rental market: North Bay vac ~1.6%; Sault ~2.4%; Sudbury ~1.4%; Timmins ~2.3%; Muskoka ~1.1%; national urban 2.2%. 

How We’ll Help (Next Steps)

If you’d like, I can run a personalized renewal / purchase / investor model that stress-tests payment, DSCR and exit under three paths:

1. Hold at 2.50%, 2) 25 bps cut in October, 3) two cuts by year-end — then show the lowest-risk term for your situation.

Just email This email address is being protected from spambots. You need JavaScript enabled to view it. with the subject line “Run My Numbers” and include your renewal date (or target purchase price & down payment).

Thanks for reading!

Caleb O'Connor, CFP
Partner | Financial Planner | Mortgage & Lending Lead, Innova Wealth Partners
Mortgage Agent Level 1, HQ Mortgages Inc.

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This publication is for informational purposes only and shall not be construed to constitute any form of advice. The views expressed are those of the author alone. Opinions expressed are as of the date of this publication and are subject to change without notice and information has been compiled from sources believed to be reliable. This publication has been prepared for general circulation and without regard to the individual financial circumstances and objectives of persons who receive it. You should not act or rely on the information without seeking the advice of the appropriate professional.