Northern Ontario Housing & Mortgage Monthly

For clients in North Bay, Greater Sudbury, Muskoka, Sault Ste. Marie & Timmins — September 2025

What changed at the Bank of Canada — and why it matters here

The BoC held its overnight rate at 2.75% at the July 30 decision. That’s the middle of its estimated “neutral” range and follows 225 bps of cuts since mid-2024. Bank of Canada

On Aug 26, Governor Tiff Macklem said the Bank’s 2026 framework review will explicitly study how monetary policy interacts with housing demand and affordability, including whether its preferred core inflation measures (trim/median) need refreshing in a world with more supply shocks. Crucially, the Bank won’t revisit the 2% inflation target. This doesn’t mean the BoC will try to set house prices; it means the Bank wants to better account for housing’s role in inflation when setting rates. Bank of Canada ReutersMortgage Rates Canada

Big-6 bank views on the path of rates

• RBC Economics: Expecting the BoC to maintain its current stance for now amid a soft patch, with a cautious bias given fiscal and trade uncertainties. wiseequities.com
  
• TD Economics: Forecast tables show Canada’s policy rate at 2.75% (2025), drifting toward 2.5% in 2026; government bond yields also trend lower. ScotiabankTD Economics
  
• BMO Economics: Sees the BoC resuming modest easing in the months ahead; earlier July scenario pointed to two 25-bp cuts by year-end and one more in Q1-2026. BMO Economics+1
  
• Scotiabank Economics: End-2025 policy rate 2.75%, easing to 2.50% in 2026 (forecast tables July 17). Scotiabank
  
• CIBC Capital Markets: Mid-year update flagged a pause now with scope to cut further as growth cools; earlier guidance envisioned ~2.5% by end-2025. economics.cibccm.comCIBC
  
• National Bank: Recent materials lean to cuts later this year; an earlier 2025 profile had the policy rate near 2.25% by year-end, then retracing some in 2026. nbfwm.canbc.caMortgage Rates Canada
  

Bottom line for borrowers: Consensus leans to one or two additional cuts into late-2025, with rates near 2.5%–2.75% at year-end and modest easing risk into 2026 (trade shocks are the wild card). Reuters Scotiabank

Northern Ontario Deep Dive

Greater Sudbury

• Sales: 299 homes in July 2025 (+7.6% YoY), sitting slightly above 5- and 10-year averages.
• Prices: MLS® HPI (single-family composite) $499,300 (+4.8% YoY). Average price $501,063 (+5.5% YoY).
• Supply: 436 new listings (largest July in 5+ years); active inventory 732 (-3.9% YoY); MOI 2.4 (vs 3.6 long-run).
  Read: tight-but-balanced conditions; sellers have a slight edge but selection improved. CREA Stats

Muskoka (via OnePoint Association — Lakelands North)

Q2 2025 (Muskoka & area):

• Non-waterfront median: $602,500 (-4.4% YoY), sales -12.2%.
• Waterfront median: $875,000 (-10.3% YoY), sales -9.5%.
  Read: cottages and waterfront adjusted the most; financing costs + insurance/tax carrying costs are tempering discretionary buys. CREA Stats

Sault Ste. Marie

• Market balance: MOI 2.4 for single-detached (Q2), unchanged YoY; median DOM 15 days (slightly longer YoY).
  Read: still a brisk, balanced market—proper pricing moves product quickly. CREA Stats
  

Timmins – Cochrane, Timiskaming District (TCTDAR)

• Sales: 88 in July 2025 (-6.4% YoY).
• New listings: 164 (+7.2% YoY).
• Active: 286 (-0.7% YoY).
• Price: Average $298,881 (+8.3% YoY).
• MOI: 3.3 (vs 3.1 a year ago).
  Read: affordability is drawing buyers even as more listings arrive; modestly balanced conditions. CREA Stats
  

North Bay

• Latest portal snapshot (Jul 28–Aug 25): Avg sold price ~$499,444, ~103 new listings, median DOM ~24 days; sale-to-list near 99%. Note: portal stats are timely but can differ from official board figures. Zolo
  

What this means for your plan (North Bay • Sudbury • Muskoka • the Sault • Timmins)

1) Renewals in the next 6–18 months

• If cash flow is tight, a shorter fixed (2–3 yr) can bridge to 2026 if cuts continue; variables become more attractive the closer we get to prime-rate relief, but budget for a buffer if cuts are slower than banks currently expect. We’ll model both paths with stress at +200 bps to your quoted rate. ScotiabankBMO Economics
  

2) Buyers & movers

• Sudbury / Sault: MOI near 2–3 → negotiate on condition/repairs rather than large price chops; pre-approvals remain essential. CREA Stats+1
  
• Muskoka: Waterfront softness improves selection—build in higher carrying costs (taxes, utilities, insurance) when we run affordability. CREA Stats
  
• Timmins: Entry-level affordability is compelling, but rising new listings mean more choice; don’t skip inspection. CREA Stats
  
• North Bay: Quick DOM signals active buyers; have financing and deposit lined up to compete without overpaying. Zolo
  

3) Investors

• With end-2025 policy rates likely near 2.5%–2.75%, cap rates need to pencil even if debt costs fall only modestly. Our pro-forma should assume flat rents and slower exit in cottage/waterfront segments. Scotiabank Reuters
  

4) Existing mortgages

• If you’re on a variable, we can check whether a small prepayment brings amortization back on track while we wait for potential autumn cuts. If you’re fixed, consider a blend-and-extend only if the penalty math nets out over your horizon—we’ll calculate this precisely for you.

Quick dashboard

• Overnight rate: 2.75% (BoC). Bank of Canada
  
• Policy direction: Banks broadly see one–two more cuts by year-end, with 2026 easing dependent on trade/inflation path. ReutersScotiabank
  
• Sudbury: Sales ↑, prices ↑, MOI 2.4 (tilt to sellers). CREA Stats
  
• Muskoka: Q2 medians down YoY (more on waterfront). CREA Stats
  
• Sault Ste. Marie: MOI 2.4, DOM ~15 d (balanced-leaning-tight). CREA Stats
  
• Timmins: Avg price up 8.3% YoY, MOI 3.3 (balanced). CREA Stats
  
• North Bay: Portal snapshot shows quick turns (~24 DOM) and avg price near $500k. (Board figures may differ). Zolo
  

How We’ll Help (Next Steps)

If you’d like, I’ll run a personalized renewal or purchase plan that stress-tests payment, cash flow and break-even under:

1. Hold at 2.75%, 2) One cut in fall, 3) Two cuts by year-end, then show the lowest-risk term for your situation.

Just email Cette adresse e-mail est protégée contre les robots spammeurs. Vous devez activer le JavaScript pour la visualiser. with the subject line “Run My Numbers” and include your renewal date (or target purchase price & down payment).

Thanks for reading!

Caleb O'Connor, CFP
Partner | Financial Planner | Mortgage & Lending Lead, Innova Wealth Partners
Mortgage Agent Level 1, HQ Mortgages Inc.

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This publication is for informational purposes only and shall not be construed to constitute any form of advice. The views expressed are those of the author alone. Opinions expressed are as of the date of this publication and are subject to change without notice and information has been compiled from sources believed to be reliable. This publication has been prepared for general circulation and without regard to the individual financial circumstances and objectives of persons who receive it. You should not act or rely on the information without seeking the advice of the appropriate professional.